Assessment of Agricultural Water Sufficiency under Climate and Land Use Changes in the Lam Takong River Basin

To narrow the gap of agricultural water insufficiency in Lam Takong River Basin, Thailand, we conducted an assessment availability and demand under climate land use changes. The was estimated by SWAT, which calibrated validated during 2008–2012 2013–2018 against observed daily discharge at M.164 station. Measured simulated discharges showed good agreement calibration validation, as indicated values 0.75 0.69 for R2 0.74 0.63 Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency, respectively. results GCMs (IPSL-CM5-MR, NorESM1-M, CanESM2) RCPs 4.5 8.5 were calculated to investigate changes rainfall temperature 2020–2099. warming tendencies future maximum minimum temperatures projected 0.018 0.022 °C/year 0.038 0.045 8.5, found increase 0.34 1.06 mm/year As compared 2017 baseline, planted areas rice, maize, cassava decrease 2020–2099, while sugarcane plantation area expected until 2079 then decline. top three greatest increases identified residential built-up (in 2099), bodies other 2059), largest rates paddy fields forest orchards (during 2059–2079). Under increased reservoir storage changes, annual 1.4 (RCP 8.5) 0.1 million m3 4.5) 2060–2079. CROPWAT solely from baseline 2099 RCP 4.5, 8.5. unmet highest deficits would take place June March 2020–2039 2040–2099, In this context, it is remarkable that obtained are able capture continued growing imbalance between supply exacerbated climatic anthropogenic This research contributes new insight compiling a comprehensive set actions effectively build resilience ensure sufficiency Basin.